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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2015-04-04T23:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-04-04T23:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/8147/-1
CME Note: CME is associated with part of a filament eruption on the SE area close to AR 2320. Eruption can be seen in SDO 193/304.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-04-09T01:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-04-07T21:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:2015-04-05T03:39Z 
Radial velocity (km/s): 870 
Longitude (deg): E038 
Latitude (deg): S26 
Half-angular width (deg): 32 

Notes: Glancing blow at best with most of the CME expected to go the the south and east of Earth. 
Space weather advisor: Chris Bulmer (updated by)

Lead Time: 66.33 hour(s)
Difference: 28.17 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2015-04-06T06:50Z

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